Komentāri iekš: What to look out for in 2010 http://citadiena.ir.lv/2010/01/14/what-to-look-out-for-in-2010/ Par tev un Latvijai būtisko. Godīgi. Thu, 29 Jul 2010 18:33:49 +0300 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 No: Ülar http://citadiena.ir.lv/2010/01/14/what-to-look-out-for-in-2010/comment-page-1/#comment-27070 Ülar Tue, 09 Mar 2010 11:41:43 +0000 http://www.citadiena.lv/?p=2616#comment-27070 Well. In Estonia we anticipate the acceptance to the EURO-zone to take place. We are well aware of the fine print and the amount of subjectivity related to this decision. Regarding the failure of Maasticht criteria of Lithuania of 0.001%, this will most likely not be the case of Estonia. The national statistics bureau estimate is that goverment deficit was only 1,7% instead of 3,0% allowed by the criterion. The overall area of interest is that if Estonia for some subjective reason is left out of the E-zone ECB will send a message to other potential joiners (Poland, Chech Republic) that, no matter how hard they try, joining the area might not be granted. This will allow these countries to set their fiscal policies in a way that might not be appreciated by ECB and also delay them joining the E-area. Well. In Estonia we anticipate the acceptance to the EURO-zone to take place. We are well aware of the fine print and the amount of subjectivity related to this decision.

Regarding the failure of Maasticht criteria of Lithuania of 0.001%, this will most likely not be the case of Estonia. The national statistics bureau estimate is that goverment deficit was only 1,7% instead of 3,0% allowed by the criterion.

The overall area of interest is that if Estonia for some subjective reason is left out of the E-zone ECB will send a message to other potential joiners (Poland, Chech Republic) that, no matter how hard they try, joining the area might not be granted. This will allow these countries to set their fiscal policies in a way that might not be appreciated by ECB and also delay them joining the E-area.

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]]> No: mikelis http://citadiena.ir.lv/2010/01/14/what-to-look-out-for-in-2010/comment-page-1/#comment-17880 mikelis Wed, 20 Jan 2010 10:35:49 +0000 http://www.citadiena.lv/?p=2616#comment-17880 ``P.S.S. An argument from the ECB will not be heard publicly. They are too influential on finance markets. So you can call it an opinion, but I do have my sources.'' ok, so readers of this thread should believe your unnamed sources? sorry but i dont find that convincing. if thats the only argument you have, then i dont believe it. The ECB signaled its displeasure with slovakia publicly, then slovakia increased the value of its exchange rate to comply. that was the pound of flesh, they couldnt block it, and they wont be able to block estonia this time if all the criteria are met. “P.S.S. An argument from the ECB will not be heard publicly. They are too influential on finance markets. So you can call it an opinion, but I do have my sources.”

ok, so readers of this thread should believe your unnamed sources? sorry but i dont find that convincing. if thats the only argument you have, then i dont believe it. The ECB signaled its displeasure with slovakia publicly, then slovakia increased the value of its exchange rate to comply. that was the pound of flesh, they couldnt block it, and they wont be able to block estonia this time if all the criteria are met.

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]]> No: Jānis http://citadiena.ir.lv/2010/01/14/what-to-look-out-for-in-2010/comment-page-1/#comment-17835 Jānis Wed, 20 Jan 2010 09:20:10 +0000 http://www.citadiena.lv/?p=2616#comment-17835 For an EC assessment to be there first we have to have a commission in place. Currently Barosso's first attempt seems rather bleak as some candidates might have to be changed. Then the new Commissioners have to take office and try to get to know the status quo. All of this delays any decisions. Aside from that, an EC assessment to come out by April/May/June is rather late for a 2011 introduction of the Euro. The assessment first will have to be deliberated on all Brussels working formats (expert work groups, permanent reps, ecofin). Mind you Ecofin meets only once per month. July/August are empty months in terms of decisions. Aside from the Brussels process, they also have to consult the Parliament and the ECB. I do not see responsible policy (Baltic state politicians aside) being combined with rushed decisions. P.S. and there is nobody stopping Lithuanian/Latvian officials to argue behind the curtains for a delayed Euro introduction in order to maintain the little economic stability we have left. P.S.S. An argument from the ECB will not be heard publicly. They are too influential on finance markets. So you can call it an opinion, but I do have my sources. For an EC assessment to be there first we have to have a commission in place. Currently Barosso’s first attempt seems rather bleak as some candidates might have to be changed. Then the new Commissioners have to take office and try to get to know the status quo. All of this delays any decisions.
Aside from that, an EC assessment to come out by April/May/June is rather late for a 2011 introduction of the Euro. The assessment first will have to be deliberated on all Brussels working formats (expert work groups, permanent reps, ecofin).
Mind you Ecofin meets only once per month. July/August are empty months in terms of decisions. Aside from the Brussels process, they also have to consult the Parliament and the ECB.

I do not see responsible policy (Baltic state politicians aside) being combined with rushed decisions.

P.S. and there is nobody stopping Lithuanian/Latvian officials to argue behind the curtains for a delayed Euro introduction in order to maintain the little economic stability we have left.

P.S.S. An argument from the ECB will not be heard publicly. They are too influential on finance markets. So you can call it an opinion, but I do have my sources.

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]]> No: mikelis http://citadiena.ir.lv/2010/01/14/what-to-look-out-for-in-2010/comment-page-1/#comment-17659 mikelis Tue, 19 Jan 2010 15:05:47 +0000 http://www.citadiena.lv/?p=2616#comment-17659 ``P.S. for Estonia to adopt in 2011 proposal has to be made now and decision taken before june, 2010. I do not see that happening.'' an assesment has to take place and it hasnt yet. so you're not seeing it because these things dont come out until April, May or June. on slovakia it was clear that the ECB did not want to expand the eurozone. the author of this blog mentions it as well in a comment on this thread, but political considerations took over and they got it. I've never seen anyone make an argument from the ECB that the baltic states have to join the euro together, and i wonder if you have any real evidence or this is just some opinion. “P.S. for Estonia to adopt in 2011 proposal has to be made now and decision taken before june, 2010. I do not see that happening.”

an assesment has to take place and it hasnt yet. so you’re not seeing it because these things dont come out until April, May or June.

on slovakia it was clear that the ECB did not want to expand the eurozone. the author of this blog mentions it as well in a comment on this thread, but political considerations took over and they got it. I’ve never seen anyone make an argument from the ECB that the baltic states have to join the euro together, and i wonder if you have any real evidence or this is just some opinion.

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]]> No: Jānis http://citadiena.ir.lv/2010/01/14/what-to-look-out-for-in-2010/comment-page-1/#comment-17658 Jānis Tue, 19 Jan 2010 14:59:56 +0000 http://www.citadiena.lv/?p=2616#comment-17658 What it has to do with Estonia see above - effects of possible Estonian adoption of the Euro before other Baltic States. Slovakia's entry did not need stopping. Other than Belgium and Greece they are not hiding deficits/public debt in peculiar approaches to statistical data. But we shall see :) P.S. for Estonia to adopt in 2011 proposal has to be made now and decision taken before june, 2010. I do not see that happening. What it has to do with Estonia see above – effects of possible Estonian adoption of the Euro before other Baltic States.

Slovakia’s entry did not need stopping. Other than Belgium and Greece they are not hiding deficits/public debt in peculiar approaches to statistical data.

But we shall see :)

P.S. for Estonia to adopt in 2011 proposal has to be made now and decision taken before june, 2010. I do not see that happening.

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]]> No: mikelis http://citadiena.ir.lv/2010/01/14/what-to-look-out-for-in-2010/comment-page-1/#comment-17599 mikelis Tue, 19 Jan 2010 10:44:44 +0000 http://www.citadiena.lv/?p=2616#comment-17599 ``they will not risk economical, social and/or political unrest within the EU.'' dont see what estonia has to do with that. the ecb couldnt stop slovakia's euro entry, and it may not be able to do it this time. almunia said its quite possible estonia may adopt in 2011, lets see how it plays out. seems to early to be calling it as you are doing. “they will not risk economical, social and/or political unrest within the EU.”

dont see what estonia has to do with that. the ecb couldnt stop slovakia’s euro entry, and it may not be able to do it this time. almunia said its quite possible estonia may adopt in 2011, lets see how it plays out. seems to early to be calling it as you are doing.

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]]> No: Jānis http://citadiena.ir.lv/2010/01/14/what-to-look-out-for-in-2010/comment-page-1/#comment-17563 Jānis Tue, 19 Jan 2010 09:32:42 +0000 http://www.citadiena.lv/?p=2616#comment-17563 Oficially: "The EU's executive Commission reviews efforts to meet euro zone entry criteria, and its invitation to join then has to be backed by EU finance ministers. The European Central Bank, EU parliament and EU leaders are also consulted in a process that, usually takes about 6 months, leading to another 6 months of preperation by the candidate before the introduction of the Euro." Unoficially, matters with regards to finance both on the EC and ECB end are controlled by representatives of one state, which stands to loose the most if the Euro project fails. (Take an educated guess, which state that is). Decisions are taken in close cooperation with that countries national bank and politicians. And their stand is fairly clear - they will not risk economical, social and/or political unrest within the EU. Estonia's happiness is not worth it. Greece obliging to Stability and Growth pact is. And as stated previously, the past three/four ECOFIN council meetings have been overshadowed by scolding Greece at those meetings. Hence also the touchiness of the subject. Oficially:
“The EU’s executive Commission reviews efforts to meet euro zone entry criteria, and its invitation to join then has to be backed by EU finance ministers.

The European Central Bank, EU parliament and EU leaders are also consulted in a process that, usually takes about 6 months, leading to another 6 months of preperation by the candidate before the introduction of the Euro.”

Unoficially, matters with regards to finance both on the EC and ECB end are controlled by representatives of one state, which stands to loose the most if the Euro project fails. (Take an educated guess, which state that is). Decisions are taken in close cooperation with that countries national bank and politicians. And their stand is fairly clear – they will not risk economical, social and/or political unrest within the EU.

Estonia’s happiness is not worth it. Greece obliging to Stability and Growth pact is.

And as stated previously, the past three/four ECOFIN council meetings have been overshadowed by scolding Greece at those meetings. Hence also the touchiness of the subject.

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]]> No: mikelis http://citadiena.ir.lv/2010/01/14/what-to-look-out-for-in-2010/comment-page-1/#comment-17429 mikelis Mon, 18 Jan 2010 16:04:42 +0000 http://www.citadiena.lv/?p=2616#comment-17429 actually in this regard the EC has more of a say than the ECB. the ECB can block entrance into ERM-II but once in there its very hard if not impossible for them to stop euro acession if criteria are met and the EC has the political support. actually in this regard the EC has more of a say than the ECB. the ECB can block entrance into ERM-II but once in there its very hard if not impossible for them to stop euro acession if criteria are met and the EC has the political support.

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]]> No: Jānis http://citadiena.ir.lv/2010/01/14/what-to-look-out-for-in-2010/comment-page-1/#comment-17426 Jānis Mon, 18 Jan 2010 15:44:58 +0000 http://www.citadiena.lv/?p=2616#comment-17426 And yet ultimately it is for the ECB to decide, not the EC or the ministers that make up the EU Council's. Especially with Greece still pending on what will happen more scrutiny is to be expected. And yet ultimately it is for the ECB to decide, not the EC or the ministers that make up the EU Council’s.

Especially with Greece still pending on what will happen more scrutiny is to be expected.

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]]> No: Morten Hansen http://citadiena.ir.lv/2010/01/14/what-to-look-out-for-in-2010/comment-page-1/#comment-17308 Morten Hansen Mon, 18 Jan 2010 11:41:53 +0000 http://www.citadiena.lv/?p=2616#comment-17308 @Janis: I agree - if the ECB had it their way they would not let Estonia in and they would not have let in Slovakia either, citing, as you say, lack of sustainability (in Estonia's case easy: negative inflation is not sustainable....) or lack of market integration. But it seems that the politicians of the EU - who make the ultimate decision - view a continuous eurozone expansion as positive and thus, somewhat, neglect the fine print. @Janis:

I agree – if the ECB had it their way they would not let Estonia in and they would not have let in Slovakia either, citing, as you say, lack of sustainability (in Estonia’s case easy: negative inflation is not sustainable….) or lack of market integration. But it seems that the politicians of the EU – who make the ultimate decision – view a continuous eurozone expansion as positive and thus, somewhat, neglect the fine print.

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